乌克兰能打赢俄罗斯吗

Can Ukraine Win against Russia?

Ukraine lacks the necessary means to engage in air combat and support its troops with fighters. This limitation restricts Ukraine to operate within a combat radius that can lead to victory.

Ukraine was able to withstand Russian forces during the initial phase of the conflict due to weaknesses in the Russian military. The inability of the Russian army to face stronger opponents was evident from their failure to capture key areas and the lack of resilience shown on the battlefield.

One of Ukraine's major challenges is its limited population and lack of effective management of the refugee crisis. Without the support of European governments to repatriate millions of Ukrainian refugees, President Zelensky will face increasing difficulties in sustaining the conflict.

From a geopolitical perspective, both Ukraine and Russia must avoid losing the conflict. Russia's strategic importance for China and its geopolitical ties call for a balanced outcome to ensure stability in the region. A Russian defeat would disrupt the delicate balance of power.

If Russia were to return the 110,000 square kilometers of land it occupies to Ukraine, it might be an acceptable outcome for Ukraine, but Russia would struggle to deal with the aftermath. Russia's intervention in Ukraine was partly motivated by preventing the country from becoming a Nazi state.

History shows that Ukraine has not been able to resist Russian influence effectively. Even during the annexation of Crimea, Ukraine was unable to mount a significant resistance. This lack of resistance is a critical factor in analyzing the potential outcomes of the conflict.

While Russia may not have decisively won in Ukraine, its future in the conflict remains uncertain. The definition of victory varies between Western countries and Russia, with NATO alliances being strengthened amid the conflict. The complexity of managing Ukraine poses a challenge even greater than winning the war.